Cost Pressure Across All Segments Is Significant, Production Cuts in Downstream Sectors Widespread in January [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM December 29:

Silicon Metal

Price

Silicon metal spot prices were flat last week. On Friday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #421 silicon was at 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt, with prices basically stable during the week. The most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,880 yuan/mt, with futures prices fluctuating upward. Downstream users showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the order signing atmosphere was not active.

Production

Supply side, silicon enterprises saw both increases and decreases in operating rates recently, with reductions being more common. Silicon metal supply trended slightly lower. Silicon metal is expected to see both supply and demand weaken.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM data, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 555,000 mt on December 25, up 2,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.8-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.14 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 49-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were temporarily stable over the weekend. Last week, prices rose in multiple downstream segments, and market sentiment improved somewhat, supporting polysilicon enterprises' mentality to hold prices firm. However, doubts remain about the transaction volume of high-priced resources across segments, requiring continued observation.

Production

Domestic production in December is expected to be 114,500 mt. Domestic production in January will continue to decrease, but the reduction is expected to be limited.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory saw a relatively significant increase. Due to recent polysilicon price increases and sharp fluctuations in the downstream market, order signing volume was extremely low, leading to a corresponding rise in inventory.

Module

Price

The transaction center for domestic modules moved upward last week. A significant price increase in the raw material, solar cells, provided cost support for modules. Although downstream currently cannot accept large module price increases, the availability of previously low-priced modules is gradually decreasing, causing the transaction center to slowly shift upward. Some dealers entered the market to purchase and restock in anticipation of price increases. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.668 yuan/W, 0.681 yuan/W, and 0.674 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.67 yuan/W and 0.69 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Domestic supply side remained basically stable last week. A few module enterprises slightly increased production after receiving more orders, but overall operating rates remained low. Module scheduled production in January is expected to continue declining.

Inventory

In terms of weekly inventory, inventory levels began to decrease last week as dealers, fearing price increases, started entering the market to purchase.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices are 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand prices are 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 77,000-79,000 yuan/mt. The price of a 33-inch quartz crucible is 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and the price of a 36-inch quartz crucible is 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent negotiations for imported sand remain in a stalemate.

Production

Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises implemented relatively significant production cuts, and supply pressure remains high.

Inventory

At year-end, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on silicon wafer production schedules, leading to a slight increase in quartz sand inventory levels.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 17.5-19 yuan/m², and the price decreased.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 18.5-20 yuan/m², and the price decreased.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11-12 yuan/m². Last week, domestic glass enterprise quotations continued to decline. After the December settlement period, most enterprise quotations had fallen to 11 yuan/m², and with demand expected to decrease in January, prices are anticipated to have further downside room.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 12-13 yuan/m², and the price decreased.

Production

Domestic operating rates are temporarily stable, with no new or cold repair furnaces. Some furnace addition plans are gradually being postponed due to weak market conditions.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels rose to 36 days. With expectations of continued reduction in demand, glass inventory is expected to continue increasing in January.